Stat Screamer’s PFR (Progressive Fixture Ranking) Methodology

Stat Screamer’s Progressive Fixture Ranking (PFR) Methodology is used to analyze the league fixtures of any club over the entire season based on factors which could affect the game psychologically. The Exclusive In-House Methodology is explained in detail in the following steps:

Step 1: Identification of Factors

The factors which affect a fixture’s difficulty level are

  1. Historical performance (Last 5 seasons) against the opponent
    1. Points scored
    2. Goals scored
    3. Goals conceded
  2. Game Venue
    1. Away or Home game
  3. Recent season performance
    1. Previous season league position

Step 2: Factor in recency for Historical performance

For all the factors identified under Historical performance, factor in recency by giving higher weightage to the recent performance over the older performances. By doing this, we are relying more on recent results but the same time aren’t forgetting the role that the older results might also play.

Step 3: Classification of opponents

The opponents should be classified into consistent (more than 2 seasons), inconsistent (1 or 2 seasons) and new (0 seasons) clubs based on how many of the last 5 seasons have they played in a league. This is done to identify how to weigh the fixtures against these clubs.

Step 4: Individual game Difficulty Level calculation

Calculation of the individual game’s difficulty level is done by doing a weighted sum of the factors in the historical performance and the last season league position. For the consistent opponents, points scored will have the highest weightage and for the inconsistent ones, last season league position will have the highest weightage. For the new clubs, only last season league position will be used to weigh the difficulty.

Step 5: Champions League Fixture Adjustment

Champions League games are played in the mid week. Hence, the game immediately after the Champions League game gets very less time for preparation. Hence, the difficulty level of the game next to Champions League fixture is increased by a percentage to adjust this fixture congestion. Once done, we get the fixture difficulty of each game of the entire season.

Step 6: Fixture Flow Difficulty Level calculation

Once the games’ difficulty levels are known, how can we define the difficulty level of the fixtures for the entire season. It can be determined by finding the Flow Difficulty level for each of the fixtures. This works on the assumption that a easier game before the current game reduces the difficulty level of the current game. Similarly, a difficult game before the current game increases the difficulty level of the current game and an easy game before the current game decreases the difficulty level of the current game. Hence, based on the previous games’ difficulty level, current game’s flow-adjusted difficulty level is found out by adding or subtracting a percentage of the difference of the difficulty levels of the last game and the current game. Average of these flow-adjusted difficulty levels is the Final Fixture Difficulty Level for each club.

Following are some of the analysis done with the help of the methodology:

  1. 2013-14 English Premier League: Manchester United are the favorites to win the league

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